The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have exposed the limitations of the state-of-the-art in the military and provide some indications on what technology companies can do to fill the gaps that exist today. There are some interesting business opportunities that are emerging and we will get to those momentarily but let us review some background first.
If we look at the accomplishments of the two wars that the US has fought in last four years, here are a few broad observations that can be made:
- Eliminating the existing authority in a country may be easy but to establish complete control is probably impossible.
- It is a big challenge to create a replacement authority that can be a strategic partner in accomplishing the ultimate goals.
- Intelligence is easy to gather when large-scale movement of hardware is involved; it is far more difficult to track half-a-dozen suicidal fighters with crude weapons.
- An intelligence war may be more effective in eliminating terrorists than an all-out conventional war. When a group of terrorists can hide in a cave for years, sophisticated hardware/technology is useless.
Conclusions that can be drawn from recent experiences
- The days of conventional warfare are probably over.
- The state-of-the-art today is not ready for the unconventional wars that will be fought in the future.
- Technology is not everything.
- While it may be politically expedient to do so, personalizing the enemy is not helpful as broader strategic goal or as a way to judge the success of an initiative.
- The difficulties that we have faced in Iraq and Afghanistan will result in a strategic shift in future warfare - when you cannot compete in conventional ways, try to defeat the enemy using unconventional tactics.
Business opportunities for technology-oriented companies
- Dissemination of meaningful, easy-to-use, and timely data to military personnel on the front lines. Technology used in recent wars did not provide this data as effectively as was needed. Data analysis and interpretation software and communication technologies are badly needed.
- Battery power is still inadequate (too much weight and too little power). A lot of opportunities exist in providing lightweight sources of power to the military.
- More use of soft intelligence (reliable informants, better understanding of local culture/language/trends, etc.) to complement hard intelligence (satellite images, interception of communication, etc.) to come up with better understanding of what is happening. What is needed are better decision tools that combine soft and hard intelligence and deliver useful information to someone who only has seconds to absorb the information and act on it.